What is a point spread and how is it set?

Contrary to popular opinion, the point spread is not the oddsmakers guess at the final margin of victory in a game. So if the Patriots are 10-point favorites to beat Buffalo, it doesn’t mean they project a 20-10 or 30-20 score.

The point spread is set by the oddsmaker ideally at a level where it is attractive to bet on either team. For example, those looking to bet Buffalo think the Bills have a decent chance of covering 10 points and Patriot backers feel confident that Tom Brady and gang can win by more than 10.

The sportsbook wants to have balanced action (roughly the same amount of money bet in the Bills as the Pats) so they can harvest their commission. This guarantees the book a profit on the game, which contrasts with a situation where 90 per cent of the bettors choose New England and they win. This is known as being over-exposed, which makes the sportsbook cranky (when they lose, lucky when they win).

How is the point spread set?

Oddsmakers use a combination of statistical and intangible factors in setting the point spread. They study the recent performances of each team, their relative strengths and weaknesses, their coaches, team power rankings and injury updates to set the number.

They also factor in public sentiment. If there is lots of hype around a team that makes a majority of bettors want to wager on them, the oddsmaker may nudge the line a bit higher. There is also the intangible experience of whether the line ‘feels’ right. This is strictly borne of experience and knowledge of the betting game and the tendencies of the betting public.

Once the point spread is set, the line may move once betting starts. If everyone is betting the Patriots at -10, then the oddsmaker will move the line to -10.5 or -11 to encourage more people to bet on the Bills. This is known as a line move and studying which way the line is moving – and why – can lead to betting profits as well.

Now that you know a point spread is and how it is set, you can turn to learning where to bet and sign up for the exclusive PointSpread.com Top 10 Steps to Becoming a Successful Sports Bettor program.

Good luck!