Get to the Point
By Jimmy Harris
My MLB three-pack was a winner last weekend. Here's hoping I can cash in as I am picking more MLB winners today.
First up is Tampa Bay at Boston, or what could be called Shields vs. Beckett Part II. In the first part of this pitching matchup earlier in the week Shields outdueled Beckett in a Rays victory.
Shields (a +140 dime line underdog on the road) completely baffled the hard-hitting Red Sox lineup in a complete-game shutout, in which he allowed only two hits while striking out seven. Beckett was also very good in that game, just not as good as Shields. Beckett lasted seven innings, allowing two runs (only one was earned) on four hits with 13 strikeouts.
The big difference in the rematch is that it takes place back at Fenway Park. I was going to take Beckett at home until I looked at his stats more closely. Last season Beckett was 11-2 with a 2.18 ERA on the road. In the so-called friendly confines of Fenway he was only 9-5 with a 4.17 ERA.
In the rematch I'll take Shields and the Rays as the underdog.
Switching over to the National League, there's what I think is an easy pick in the San Francisco/Philadelphia matchup. Starting this one is Matt Cain for the Giants and Brett Myers for the Phillies.
Cain started off the season poorly and his 1-2 record and 4.41 ERA shows it. However, in his last two starts Cain has combined to give up only one run and nine hits in 12 1-3 innings of work. Cain's finally getting it together and should win if the Giants supply him with enough runs.
With Myers on the hill for Philadelphia that shouldn't be a problem. Myers is having velocity issues right now and he's getting pounded because of it. Myers was ripped for four runs in five innings by Pittsburgh in his last start, and Colorado roughed him up for six runs in seven innings before that.
Even the lame Giants' offense should be able to bang out four or five runs off him. The Giants are also underdogs of baseball's moneyline to the tune of +140. We see this as a great value play.
The last game on my list looks like the easiest pick of them all. It's the Mets at the Diamondbacks, with Mike Pelfry facing the undefeated Brandon Webb. I'll sum this one up real quick: Webb takes his first loss on Saturday.
I think Webb's been great so far this season, and I really wish I had drafted him on my awful fantasy team, but look at the teams Webb has shut down so far this season. He got San Francisco twice, Colorado twice early on when the whole team was hitting below .200, San Diego (who can't hit), and the Reds (who might as well be called the Big Red Strikeout Machine).
The Mets will finally get to Webb and give his ERA a little jolt. Meanwhile, Pelfry should bounce back from a mediocre start against the Braves with a quality six or seven innings. If you think I'm right, it's a nice +175 moneyline dog payoff.